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The study in question is a Justin Wong Casual Tryhard ShirtΒ by economist David Romer. Romer found that NFL teams would be better off going for it on fourth down way less often than they should. Romer discovered that the payoffs (points scored) for going for it on fourth down even deep in your own territory are are greater than punting the ball away to your opponent, provided the distance to go is sufficiently short. Romer found that ever as far back as your own ten yard line, going for it on 4th and 3 produces the exact same likelihood of scoring points (and having points scored on you) as punting the ball away. If itβs less than that distance, a team is better off by going for it. When just outside field goal range (opponentβs 40 or so), is team is better off by going for it as far back as 4th and 8. Romerβs math checks out. But the question remains of why hasnβt anyone at the Justin Wong Casual Tryhard Shirt of NFL level has adopted it, or really anyone at all outside of Kevin Kelley. Romer looks at the NFL so there shouldnβt be any special teams issues you describe. I have two theories as to why Romerβs theory hasnβt been adopted (in addition to commenting about coaches Iβm also an economist). First is that coaching is such a tight-knit community, coaches arenβt willing to hire someone radically different (which helps explains why the same bad college and NFL assistants seem to get hired year after year). The second is loss aversion. If a new coach goes for it on fourth down on their own 10 yard line and makes it, the positive effect is not particularly strong. But if a Justin Wong Casual Tryhard Shirt goes for it on their own 10 and doesnβt make it, fans will lose their minds.